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I wouldn't be so quick to write off the official performance figures of the POH. While they may not be 100% accurate they can be useful.
Look in the POH at takeoff distance at 2000 ft field elevation at max gross weight and 80 degrees for the airplanes you are considering and see what you get. Add 10% to that number and round up to the closest 100 ft.. The POH is constructed with average pilots using average techniques in mind. You might know of other techniques that give better performance.
How much runway did you use with the 172 in December?
I personnaly have a lot of experience(1200 HRS) in the PA-140. While it is a fine airplane I wouldn't want to operate it out of an 1800 ft grass strip near max gross weight unless it was absolutely free of obstacles. Even then, it's a little risky.
If there was an engne problem on takeoff close to your takeoff speed there would be almost margin in making an abort decision. You should consider if there is an area beyond the end of runway that could be used for stopping without injuring your family.
In general an Archer(PA28-180) or a 172 with 180 hp enigne would be a better choice. You could also put your family, or others in a 172 and see how much runway you use at a different airport.
Some of it boils down to your proficiency in a particular airplane and your personnel appitite for risk. Some pilots can work miracles in some very marginal airplanes because of their familiarity with the ariplane.
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